Sir Howard Bernstein is a man who likes to get his way. He also has acute political antennae. How else could
he have stayed at the head of Manchester's officer corps for so long?

So, when the city council's chief executive looked me in the eye and said with supreme confidence "We will win the congestion charge referendum", I was taken aback.

After all aren't we entering a bleak autumn for the economy, the worst for 60 years according to the hapless Chancellor? And what is substantially responsible for the slump? The massive summer hike in world oil prices which has hit every motorist who will travel through Sir Howard's congestion charge rings in 2013.

I'm sorry to personalise this around Sir Howard but he is leading with his chin on this initiative, rather than remaining in the shadows. Surely the hardpressed motorists and business owners will outvote the greens, bus and tram users in the Christmas poll?

Well perhaps not. Three million pounds are being spent on the consultation exercise which ends shortly, and opponents feel they are being outspent. A bit like Sir Howard's club, the newly-enriched Manchester City, compared to Stockport County.

Part of that money has been spent on a poll of 5,000 Greater Manchester residents and 1,000 businesses. It's reported that amongst residents there was a majority for the levy in all ten boroughs of Greater Manchester, although greater scepticism amongst the business fraternity.

This inspired the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce to demand a business-only vote to accompany the postal referendum in December.

The Chamber's policy manager for transport, Richard Critchley , makes the not unreasonable point that not all business stakeholders live in Greater Manchester.

The Chamber has been patted on the head and told that a separate survey will be undertaken in January, but the weight to be attached to its findings will be decided at a later date.

To return to the issue of who gets to vote, some of those most affected are having no say. When Manchester is putting forward the case for a wide city region it often makes the point that North Cheshire, the Peak District and the M66 corridor into Lancashire are all within its preview.

However, if you commute from Glossop, Wilmslow or Bacup into Manchester every day, you will have the feeling of the unwashed peasantry of the nineteenth century come December.

Indeed it is to be a postal referendum. So get ready to identify your voting paper amongst the early Christmas cards.

The crucial wording of the referendum question is yet to be decided. In the survey I referred to earlier it's reported people were asked two questions.

One was whether councils should accept the congestion charge. That's where there was a "yes" vote across the ten boroughs. That dropped to six when people were asked if they personally supported it.

The voting in each borough is crucial. Seven council areas must vote in favour for the referendum to be won. The political leaderships of three are opposed. Stockport's Lib Dems have been told they will have to wait until after 2013 for a Metrolink extension. Trafford and Bury Tories are already linked into the system with no congestion charge.

Bolton could hold the key. The minority Labour administration had already been forced to promise its own referendum before the countywide poll was agreed.

The stakes are high. When I suggested to Sir Howard Bernstein that the Government, with an eye on the eight marginal seats in the area, might give us the public transport money anyway, he again looked me in the eye.

He asked if I was aware that Bristol, Leeds, Nottingham and Tyne and Wear, having seen what the farsighted Greater Manchester team had done, had schemes waiting to be funded by a congestion charge.

Meanwhile, a dizzying array of discounts and exemptions are being offered to people who regularly attend hospital inside the M60 and people on low wages. How are these going to work?

Anyway it's all being done because the result could be close. So, if you are eligible, make sure you vote before decorating the Christmas tree.

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